Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

Towards Regional Synergy: Reconciling Rangeland Ecological Functioning with Forage Production of Cultivated Pasture     

SHI Peili  ZHANG Xianzhou 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(3):247-252

Animal husbandry and crop farming are specialized for development in separate areas on the Tibetan Plateau. Such a pattern of isolation has led to current concerns of rangeland and farming system degradation due to intensive land use. The crop-livestock integration, however, has been proven to increase food and feed productivity thorough niche complementarity, and is thereby especially effective for promoting ecosystem resilience. Regional synergy has emerged as an integrated approach to reconcile rangeland livestock with forage crop production. It moves beyond the specialized sectors of animal husbandry and intensive agriculture to coordinate them through regional coupling. Therefore, crop-livestock integration (CLI) has been suggested as one of the effective solutions to forage deficit and livestock production in grazing systems. But it is imperative that CLI moves forward from the farm level to the regional scale, in order to secure regional synergism during agro-pastoral development. The national key R & D program, Technology and Demonstration of Recovery and Restoration of Degraded Alpine Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau, aims to solve the problems of alpine grassland degradation by building up a grass-based animal husbandry technology system that includes synergizing forage production and ecological functioning, reconciling the relationship between ecology, forage production and animal husbandry, and achieving the win-win goals of curbing grassland degradation and changing the development mode of animal husbandry. It is imperative to call for regional synergy through integrating ecological functioning with ecosystem services, given the alarming threat of rangeland degradation on the Tibetan Plateau. The series of papers in this issue, together with those published previously, provide a collection of rangeland ecology and management studies in an effort to ensure the sustainable use and management of the alpine ecosystems.  相似文献   

南海西沙永乐龙洞沉积物组成、来源及其沉积作用     

范德江  田元  傅亮  罗珂  孙晓霞  毕乃双  姚鹏  刘光兴  陈洪举  杨作升 《海洋与湖沼》2018,49(6):1203-1210

南海永乐龙洞发育于永乐珊瑚礁台地,龙洞深度达300m,为世界之最。沉积物堆积在龙洞的洞壁斜坡、龙洞中部的转折平台以及洞底等部位。使用激光粒度仪、X射线粉晶衍射仪、X射线荧光光谱仪等对采自不同深度的沉积物进行了粒级、矿物物相、元素含量的研究。研究结果表明:龙洞沉积物绝大部分为钙质生物碎屑,以砂粒级碎屑为主,含砾石碎屑、粉砂碎屑,分选和磨圆差;沉积物矿物组成以文石、高镁方解石为主,含少量低镁方解石,其平均含量分别为69%、28%、3%;化学组成以Ca、Mg、Sr为主,平均含量分别为35.5%、0.9%、0.5%,含少量Si、Al、Ti、P、S等元素。该区沉积物来源包括礁坪生物碎屑和东亚季风风尘陆源物质两个方面,以礁坪来源的生物碎屑为主;龙洞沉积作用包括机械捕获作用和垂直沉降作用两种方式,而以机械捕获作用为主。  相似文献   

美国海上油气田租赁开发和环评体系研究          下载免费PDF全文

金嘉萌  黄必桂  安明明 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(7):30-35

美国海洋油气环评贯穿于外大陆架油气区域租赁销售和开发的各个阶段。文章从美国外大陆架租赁范围界定入手,介绍油气区域租赁开发所经历的5年规划、区域销售、勘探和开发生产各阶段所涉及的环评文件类型。着重分析美国海洋油气开发环评体系、工作程序和文件内容,最后提出对我国海洋油气开发环评的启示,即:海洋油气规划环评在先;公众参与的早期介入;全过程政府环评;环评审查不等于排污许可。  相似文献   

解郁安神法联合体外反搏对PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床疗效观察          下载免费PDF全文

王敏  徐新利  姜光萍 《应用海洋学学报》2020,36(12):1

目的：观察解郁安神法联合体外反搏（EECP）对经皮冠状动脉介入治疗（PCI）术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床疗效。方法：将80例冠心病PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者随机分为治疗组和对照组,每组各40例。对照组采用PCI术后规范化治疗,同时联合EECP治疗;治疗组在对照组基础上加服解郁安神方治疗,随访观察7周,比较2组临床证候疗效、Zung焦虑自评量表（SAS）评分、抑郁自评量表（SDS）评分、西雅图心绞痛调查量表（SAQ）评分。结果：总有效率治疗组为82.5%（33/40）,高于对照组的60.0%（24/40）,2组比较,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）;2组SAS、SDS、SAQ评分治疗前后组内比较及治疗后组间比较,差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论：解郁安神法联合EECP治疗可明显改善PCI术后气滞血瘀型胸痹患者的临床症状,缓解焦虑抑郁程度,提高患者生活质量,值得临床推广应用。  相似文献   

黄渤海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)渔业生物学参考点估计研究     

纪毓鹏  刘群  廖宝超  张清清  韩亚楠 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(10):20-26

It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.  相似文献   

我国海洋保护地现状、问题及发展对策          下载免费PDF全文

赵林林  程梦旎  应佩璇  曲方圆  张朝晖 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(5):3-7

随着我国海洋经济的不断发展,沿海地区的海洋环境和生态系统面临的压力不断加剧。海洋保护地作为海洋生态环境管理的有效手段,近30年来被广泛应用于海洋生物多样性和生态系统保护,取得了显著的成就和效果。文章通过对我国海洋保护地的建设情况进行系统研究,阐述了海洋保护地的发展现状和管理体制,重点剖析了海洋保护地管理和建设过程中面临的缺乏顶层设计、管理能力和管护条件弱、管理人才和资金少、空间发展不平衡等问题,在建设以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系的新形势下,为我国海洋保护地的发展提出了健全海洋保护地管理制度体系、构建海洋保护地网络体系、加强海洋保护地管理能力建设和加强海洋保护地宣传教育等对策建议。  相似文献   

Water transport and tracer mixing in volcanic ash soils at a tropical hillslope: A wet layered sloping sponge     

Giovanny M. Mosquera  Patricio Crespo  Lutz Breuer  Jan Feyen  David Windhorst 《水文研究》2020,34(9):2032-2047

Andosol soils formed in volcanic ash provide key hydrological services in montane environments. To unravel the subsurface water transport and tracer mixing in these soils we conducted a detailed characterization of soil properties and analyzed a 3-year data set of sub-hourly hydrometric and weekly stable isotope data collected at three locations along a steep hillslope. A weakly developed (52–61 cm depth), highly organic andic (Ah) horizon overlaying a mineral (C) horizon was identified, both showing relatively similar properties and subsurface flow dynamics along the hillslope. Soil moisture observations in the Ah horizon showed a fast responding (few hours) “rooted” layer to a depth of 15 cm, overlying a “perched” layer that remained near saturated year-round. The formation of the latter results from the high organic matter (33–42%) and clay (29–31%) content of the Ah horizon and an abrupt hydraulic conductivity reduction in this layer with respect to the rooted layer above. Isotopic signatures revealed that water resides within this soil horizon for short periods, both at the rooted (2 weeks) and perched (4 weeks) layer. A fast soil moisture reaction during rainfall events was also observed in the C horizon, with response times similar to those in the rooted layer. These results indicate that despite the perched layer, which helps sustain the water storage of the soil, a fast vertical mobilization of water through the entire soil profile occurs during rainfall events. The latter being the result of the fast transmissivity of hydraulic potentials through the porous matrix of the Andosols, as evidenced by the exponential shape of the water retention curves of the subsequent horizons. These findings demonstrate that the hydrological behavior of volcanic ash soils resembles that of a “layered sponge,” in which vertical flow paths dominate.  相似文献   

“地理素养与测绘技能”双驱动的GIS专业大学生创新能力培养模式的探索     

蔡忠亮  翁敏  苏世亮  亢孟军  费腾  田晶  任福 《测绘通报》2020,(8):148-152

在信息技术快速发展和万众创新、大众创业的时代背景下，创新与创新人才已成为国家发展的重要推动力，创新教育和创新人才培养成为高校的重要任务。本文以武汉大学地理信息科学（GIS）专业为例，结合专业特点和优势，探索了"地理素养、测绘技能"驱动下的GIS专业大学生创新能力的培养模式和"厚基础、重知识、强技能"的贯通式培养途径。围绕创新人才培养和成长的内在因素和外部条件，从人才培养方案与课程体系、创新型教师团队与新型教学方法、教学科研创新平台与创新条件、创新人才发展评价与激励机制等4个方面开展了创新型发展探索。结合实践表明，本模式取得了显著的创新成果，产生了良好的示范辐射作用。  相似文献   

基于深度学习理论的无人机影像分类     

阳成 《北京测绘》2020,(4):481-484

针对无人机影像深度学习分类方法缺乏现状,本文利用深度学习理论卷积神经网络方法对无人机影像进行了分类。该法首先抽取无人机影像作为训练集和检验集,然后建立一个2个卷积层-池化层的卷积神经网络模型进行深度学习,通过设定参数并运行模型实现无人机影像分类。实验表明,本文提出的方法可完成较复杂地区无人机影像分类,其分类精度与支持向量机方法相当,为无人机遥感影像分类提供了一个崭新的技术视点。  相似文献